傻冒儿 Stupid Hat aka ShaMao'er

War on Nature

This is a pretty good article in the Financial Times.  

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/005617c2-51cc-11dd-a97c-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

I'm not sure why it won't let me link it directly.   I love this quote:
" If this is the “harmonious society” of which China’s leaders boast, then São Paulo is an egalitarian paradise."

I guess the irony will be lost on my Chinese readers...

The water report

I got an unsolicited piece of mail the other day entitled "Annual Water Quality Report" published by Providence Water.  It is a couple pages and details the current state of water quality in Providence.  It goes into quite some detail with regards to the various kinds of pollutants and additives that may be found in tap water.  For each substance it includes the date of testing, findings, federal and state guidelines, and whether or not it was in compliance.  For lead, the water was slightly out of compliance and there is a section detailing what steps are being taken to improve.  

I often come across little things like this that I only recognize as being great and extraordinary because of my experience of living in China for so long.  It may be that this type of transparency is not voluntary on the part of Providence Water but is instead court or legislature ordered but it doesn't matter.  The end result is a system that is working and improving and transparent.

BOOM!

Ok, so this post is a bit late but...  Long time readers will recall my series of "Tick tick" posts about a year ago or so forecasting the imminent crash of the China stock bubble.  Of course the apologists and naysayers all said I was wrong and that China is somehow above the laws of economics...

Mencken's Creed

One of my favorites:

Mencken's Creed

     I believe that religion, generally speaking, has been a curse to mankind - that its modest and greatly overestimated services on the ethical side have been more than overcome by the damage it has done to clear and honest thinking.
     I believe that no discovery of fact, however trivial, can be wholly useless to the race, and that no trumpeting of falsehood, however virtuous in intent, can be anything but vicious.
     I believe that all government is evil, in that all government must necessarily make war upon liberty...
     I believe that the evidence for immortality is no better than the evidence of witches, and deserves no more respect.
     I believe in the complete freedom of thought and speech...
     I believe in the capacity of man to conquer his world, and to find out what it is made of, and how it is run.
     I believe in the reality of progress.
     I - But the whole thing, after all, may be put very simply. I believe that it is better to tell the truth than to lie. I believe that it is better to be free than to be a slave. And I believe that it is better to know than be ignorant.

Initial trip thoughts

On the flight back to the US now.  Hopefully I will find the gumption to write some detailed posts about several topics that I thought on during the trip.  For now, here are some general impressions of the 3 places I visited.

Shanghai:  I don’t have too much to say about Shanghai.  It hadn’t changed much since the last time I was there.  Sure there were new buildings here and there but when you have so many already, a few more doesn’t really impress or detract.  As usual on a trip to Shanghai, I pretty much stayed in the downtown Puxi area close to our office so I really didn’t see to much.  Going into the Shanghai office did again confirm my prejudice that in general, Shanghai people just aren’t very friendly as compared to Beijingers or others in China.   The weather was nice and the air quality not bad for China.  I’d give the air a 5 or 6 on a 1-10 scale (avg day in Boston = 9). 

Singapore:  Singapore is really nice.  This was my 3^rd trip there but I stayed a weekend this time and so had the opportunity to see much more than I have in past.  Wherever I walked in Singapore the same thought kept occurring: “That is really well done”.  The whole city is just really well done.  It is not just the legendary cleanliness; it’s the landscape architecture, the mix of classic colonial and modern buildings, the convenient layout, beautiful women, and the excellent variety and quality of food.  We were very fortunate in the weather as well with everyday no more than 85 degrees or so with a pleasant breeze.  I have been there in August before and do remember how oppressively hot it can be.   About the only drawback I could see was the expense.  Compared to the US, Singapore is really expensive.  This seems to be pretty much true across the board but it was really obvious in the cost of alcoholic drinks.  A draft beer at a pretty average restaurant ran me nearly $10 US.  At a nicer restaurant it was more like $15.   All in all, one could certainly do worse than to end up in Singapore.

Beijing:  Beijing is the city that I am most familiar with of the three, having lived there for over 2 years.  It is also the place that I have thought I would return to if I were to choose to live in China again.  I had a nice time.  I saw some friends, had good conversation, and generally enjoyed myself.  However, the city itself was a pretty huge disappointment.  I am both a little surprised and horrified that the city is in the condition it is so close to the Olympics.  I simply cannot imagine what they are going to do to prevent a massive loss of face to China (in Chinese own eyes) which could have lasting geopolitical consequences.  

It started with the airport.  They have recently opened a new terminal for international flights.  Apparently, this terminal is built some outrageous distance away from the rest of the airport.  The result being that the airplane must taxi about ½ hour (no exaggeration!) after landing just to get to a gate.  Once you get off the plane, you must walk and ride trains for at least another ½ hour before you arrive at the baggage claim.  Add in the immigration and it is about 1 ½ hours from landing to arrival at baggage claim.  Just amazingly inconvenient particularly after a long international flight.  Like most prestige projects in China, the new terminal is large, empty, and pretty soulless other than the garish ultranationalist fountains they have here and there. 

 

Traffic!  For the 5 days I was there, no matter what road I traveled at what time of day the traffic was noticeably worse than 11 months ago.  Mathematically it could be no other way when they are adding how ever many thousands of cars per month with no new roads.  It is really quite bad now and in general must have quite a negative effect of the efficiency of nearly any activity.  I’m told by a taxi driver that most of the cars will be off the road (including his taxi which he was none to happy about) during the Olympics. 

Air.  I was surprised at the air.  I believe it was actually worse than a year ago, certainly no better.  I would rate it a 3 on the 1-10 scale above.  It is really quite bad.  I kept thinking that if I were an Olympic athlete visiting Beijing maybe to see the venue prior to or something I can’t imagine them returning to compete.  I suspect breathing that air could permanently affect their performance.   Maybe they will somehow clean it up in time for the games but barring a miracle (in the form of maybe a week of rain prior to the games) I just can’t see how it could be done. 

I do not predict a rosy future for Beijing.  It simply is not sustainable.  I am thinking that its population has probably pretty well peaked and that those with the means will begin to move to smaller cities with better infrastructure and a more favorable climate.   By the way, Beijingers know it too.  I heard from several people that they do not want the Olympics to come because they know there it a fair risk of disaster. 

Back

Shamao will be heading to China on Saturday for the first time since he moved back to the US almost a year ago now.  Should provide some good, more timely, fodder for future China related posts.  Should be interesting...

Bipolar patriotism

Readers will know that one of ShaMao's favorite topics is the future of America and that I am pretty bipolar on the subject. One day I will be riding high gushing about philanthropic donations , and the next I will be sunk in the suburban blight of the Detroit suburbs .   

I just finished a great essay in Foreign Affairs (no link cuz subscription only) by Fareed Zakaria entitled The Future of American Power that has put me back in the high life.   Mr. Zakaria begins by contrasting the decline of the British Empire to current America, then talks for a time about contemporary America's relative strengths and weaknesses, and finishes up with a rather nonspecific call for political reform.  In the second section, Mr. Zakaria debunks several common myths that we hear about fairly regularly and presents some illuminating facts including these excerpts below (italics are mine):

• The United States has accounted for roughly a quarter of world output for over a century (32 percent in 1913, 26 percent in 1960, 22 percent in 1980, 27 percent in 2000, and 26 percent in 2007). Most estimates suggest that in 2025 the United States' economy will still be twice the size of China's in terms of nominal GDP.

• The United States spends more on defense research and development than the rest of the world put together. And crucially, it does all this without breaking the bank. U.S. defense expenditure as a percent of GDP is now 4.1 percent, lower than it was for most of the Cold War (under Dwight Eisenhower, it rose to ten percent).

• The Iraq war may be a tragedy or a noble endeavor, but either way, it will not bankrupt the United States. The price tag for Iraq and Afghanistan together -- $125 billion a year -- represents less than one percent of GDP. The war in Vietnam, by comparison, cost the equivalent of 1.6 percent of U.S. GDP in 1970, a large difference. (Neither of these percentages includes second- or third-order costs of war, which allows for a fair comparison even if one disputes the exact figures.)

• Biotech revenues in the United States approached $50 billion in 2005, five times as large as the amount in Europe and representing 76 percent of global biotech revenues.

• Or consider that the United States' current account deficit -- which in 2007 reached $800 billion, or seven percent of GDP -- was supposed to be unsustainable at four percent of GDP. The current account deficit is at a dangerous level, but its magnitude can be explained in part by the fact that there is a worldwide surplus of savings and that the United States remains an unusually stable and attractive place to invest. The decrease in personal savings, as the Harvard economist Richard Cooper has noted, has been largely offset by an increase in corporate savings. The U.S. investment picture also looks much rosier if education and research-and-development spending are considered along with spending on physical capital and housing

• The United States actually trains more engineers per capita than either China or India does. (all the figures we see to the contrary include so called "engineers" graduated by 2 or 3 year technical schools)

• The United States invests 2.6 percent of its GDP in higher education, compared with 1.2 percent in Europe and 1.1 percent in Japan. Depending on which study you look at, the United States, with five percent of the world's population, has either seven or eight of the world's top ten universities and either 48 percent or 68 percent of the top 50. The situation in the sciences is particularly striking. In India, universities graduate between 35 and 50 Ph.D.'s in computer science each year; in the United States, the figure is 1,000. A list of where the world's 1,000 best computer scientists were educated shows that the top ten schools are all American.

• "students in affluent suburban U.S. school districts score nearly as well as students in Singapore, the runaway leader on TIMSS math scores." The difference between the average science scores in poor and wealthy school districts within the United States, for instance, is four to five times as high as the difference between the U.S. and the Singaporean national average. In other words, the problem with U.S. education is a problem of inequality.  (I thought this one was interesting and in line with what I see in upper middle class America)

• Tharman Shanmugaratnam, until recently Singapore's minister of education, explains the difference between his country's system and that of the United States: "We both have meritocracies," Shanmugaratnam says. "Yours is a talent meritocracy, ours is an exam meritocracy. We know how to train people to take exams. You know how to use people's talents to the fullest. Both are important, but there are some parts of the intellect that we are not able to test well -- like creativity, curiosity, a sense of adventure, ambition. Most of all, America has a culture of learning that challenges conventional wisdom, even if it means challenging authority."

• The country has found a way to keep itself constantly revitalized by streams of people who are eager to make a new life in a new world. Some Americans have always worried about such immigrants -- whether from Ireland or Italy, China or Mexico. But these immigrants have gone on to become the backbone of the American working class, and their children or grandchildren have entered the American mainstream. The United States has been able to tap this energy, manage diversity, assimilate newcomers, and move ahead economically. Ultimately, this is what sets the country apart from the experience of Britain and all other past great economic powers that have grown fat and lazy and slipped behind as they faced the rise of leaner, hungrier nations.

Playboy

Beijing is also expected to permit distribution of Playboy magazine in China for at least a month to meet the demand of overseas visitors during the Olympics, the sources said.

How typical and stupid for so many reasons.  First, who the hell even reads it anymore?  Second, I have no choice but to view it as racist.  In my experience, Chinese tend to think of foreigners as depraved sex fiends.   Now I will admit that the actions of many Westerners in China may contribute to this view (with the full cooperation of Chinese women of course), however I always found this funny in a country where there is literally not a village, town or city that does not have some sort of whorehouse (whether ktv, massage parlor, or barbershop) on every block.

Name and Shame

I am really angry with this soon to be passed Farm Bill.  It is really pretty pathetic when a piece of legislation not only does not help, but instead actively harms not only the economy but the well being of the poor worldwide.  Shame on all those below who voted yea.  Double shame on each of our presidential candidates for not having the balls to even take a position.

Akaka (D-HI), Yea              Alexander (R-TN), Yea              Allard (R-CO), Yea              Barrasso (R-WY), Yea              Baucus (D-MT), Yea              Bayh (D-IN), Yea              Bennett (R-UT), Nay              Biden (D-DE), Not Voting              Bingaman (D-NM), Yea              Bond (R-MO), Yea              Boxer (D-CA), Not Voting              Brown (D-OH), Yea              Brownback (R-KS), Yea              Bunning (R-KY), Yea              Burr (R-NC), Nay              Byrd (D-WV), Yea              Cantwell (D-WA), Yea              Cardin (D-MD), Yea              Carper (D-DE), Yea              Casey (D-PA), Yea              Chambliss (R-GA), Yea              Clinton (D-NY), Not Voting              Coburn (R-OK), Yea              Cochran (R-MS), Yea              Coleman (R-MN), Yea              Collins (R-ME), Nay              Conrad (D-ND), Yea              Corker (R-TN), Yea              Cornyn (R-TX), Yea              Craig (R-ID), Yea              Crapo (R-ID), Yea              DeMint (R-SC), Nay              Dodd (D-CT), Not Voting              Dole (R-NC), Yea

Domenici (R-NM), Yea              Dorgan (D-ND), Yea              Durbin (D-IL), Yea              Ensign (R-NV), Nay              Enzi (R-WY), Yea              Feingold (D-WI), Yea              Feinstein (D-CA), Yea              Graham (R-SC), Yea              Grassley (R-IA), Yea              Gregg (R-NH), Nay              Hagel (R-NE), Nay              Harkin (D-IA), Yea              Hatch (R-UT), Yea              Hutchison (R-TX), Yea              Inhofe (R-OK), Yea              Inouye (D-HI), Yea              Isakson (R-GA), Yea              Johnson (D-SD), Yea              Kennedy (D-MA), Yea              Kerry (D-MA), Yea              Klobuchar (D-MN), Yea              Kohl (D-WI), Yea              Kyl (R-AZ), Nay              Landrieu (D-LA), Yea              Lautenberg (D-NJ), Nay              Leahy (D-VT), Yea              Levin (D-MI), Yea              Lieberman (ID-CT), Yea              Lincoln (D-AR), Yea              Lott (R-MS), Yea              Lugar (R-IN), Nay              Martinez (R-FL), Yea              McCain (R-AZ), Not Voting              McCaskill (D-MO), Yea

McConnell (R-KY), Yea              Menendez (D-NJ), Yea              Mikulski (D-MD), Yea              Murkowski (R-AK), Yea              Murray (D-WA), Yea              Nelson (D-FL), Not Voting              Nelson (D-NE), Yea              Obama (D-IL), Not Voting              Pryor (D-AR), Yea              Reed (D-RI), Nay              Reid (D-NV), Yea              Roberts (R-KS), Yea              Rockefeller (D-WV), Yea              Salazar (D-CO), Yea              Sanders (I-VT), Yea              Schumer (D-NY), Yea              Sessions (R-AL), Yea              Shelby (R-AL), Yea              Smith (R-OR), Yea              Snowe (R-ME), Yea              Specter (R-PA), Yea              Stabenow (D-MI), Yea              Stevens (R-AK), Yea              Sununu (R-NH), Nay              Tester (D-MT), Yea              Thune (R-SD), Yea              Vitter (R-LA), Yea              Voinovich (R-OH), Nay              Warner (R-VA), Yea              Webb (D-VA), Yea              Whitehouse (D-RI), Nay              W

Praying for global warming

Today I turned my rental car around in the parking lot of a shuttered Walmart.   Next to the former Walmart was a strip mall of which about 1/3 was occupied.  Next to the strip mall was a shuttered Steak and BBQ restaurant.  The kind of eerie thing about these abandoned properties was that they were not rundown.  This was not a 1960's or even 1970's looking decrepit strip mall.  Both the mall and the restaurant are very 1990's looking in architecture and layout.   As I drove further down this very typical looking suburban four lane road, I found closed down gas stations, convenience stores, and many restaurants.   

I have seen many examples of urban blight in my life and have also seen rural poverty.  But this was the first time I had seen (or perhaps noticed is more honest) very middle class suburban blight.   This vision of one version of America's future is in my home away from home these last two months, Michigan. 

This post is kind of a part 2 from my February post on comparative advantage.  I am having a very hard time envisioning a very bright future for Michigan.  At least New Bedford, the town in Massachusetts I wrote about in my Feb post, is near the ocean and surrounded by more prosperous regions.  Michigan has crappy weather a good half of the year and seemingly nothing very compelling around it either.   Those with the skills and education to get new jobs as the manufacturing continues its exodus will largely move to nicer climes.  Those left will perpetuate the blight.  Their only hope may be global warming.