傻冒儿 Stupid Hat aka ShaMao'er

Hot Air?

This week has been climate change week for me.  I live within a 10 minute walk of an Ivy league university and often attend public lectures they hold quite regularly.  This week I attended two panels on climate change, one on corporate responsibility and one on emerging economies.  Coincidently, while researching one of the panel speakers who particularly impressed me, I came across this video produced by the Canadian Broadcasting Company (CBC). 

CBC - Global Warming Doomsday

The video made me think so much that I had to research some of the "experts" within and came across this:

Climate Change - The Deniers

I read each of the 27 short articles therein. 

Now I have been somewhat torn on climate change for some time now.  On the one hand is my natural skeptic nature and the slightly nauseous feeling I get whenever I am asked to jump on a bandwagon whose roots I either don't understand or seem nonsensical (i.e. Y2K, 90's tech boom, China economy, etc.).  On the other hand, there is "An Inconvenient Truth", constant media attention, and even presidential candidates talking about man-made climate change. 

About a year ago, I decided that man-made climate change is in fact real and a present threat.  I did not, at the time, do much research other than watching the movie and reading the mass media reports.  I believe I also downloaded and read the executive summary of the 2007 IPCC Climate Change Report as well. 

Now after reading and watching the above and attending the panel discussions, I just don't know what to think.  My skeptic nature has again reared its head.  These scientists are not peripheral figures.   In many cases they work at top institutions (i.e. Harvard, MIT, CERN) and in several cases were actually involved in the initial IPCC processes.  None are denying that the climate is probably warming. They are however uncertain as to the cause(s).  The panel discussions I attended at the University were also an eye opener in two ways.  First, while the professors did not come right out and say it, they were definitely very conservative in their opinions and outlook.  I don't think they would dare to say they were actual skeptics in a crowd that was 90% college students.  Which brings me to the second point.   The students attending reminded me an awful lot of evangelicals, or nazis, or red guards (pick your metaphor).  Based on their questions they were so sure of man's (and particularly corporations) evil agendas and rabidly eager to burn them at the stake (well, maybe not "burn" given the carbon that would emit).  They were clearly not so pleased with the reticence of their professors.  I can quite easily imagine these students graduating and joining the political side at the IPCC as alleged in one of the articles linked above.

So now I am again in my uncertain state.  Right now I guess my position is that green technology is a good thing whether or not mankind is causing climate change.  After living in China I think that I am more sensitive to air quality than most Americans. It is definitely better to live in clean air and with clean water than not to.   It is definitely better to not rely on foreign oil and natural gas if possible.  As a result I would still encourage governments to incentivize R&D, increase efficiency, and the like.  I would, however, not agree with radical policy changes that might have significant adverse economic effect on a wide range of people until the science is a lot clearer than it appears to be today.

Perspective

A little more perspective for all you blind bulls out there...

"...the assets under management of a single American mutual fund, Fidelity, are equal to China’s entire foreign exchange stockpile."

10 Commandments

This is from a new site I just found called China Solved.  China Solved

I have to tell you that I met an innumerable amount of western "consultants" and "consulting firms" when I was in China.  The vast majority were 1 man operations who didn't even speak the language and basically didn't know their ass from their elbows.   These fellows over at China Solved are not them.

Check out this top 10 list they compiled.  Great, obvious stuff that company after company after company forget on a daily basis often times despite having operated in China for years.  4,5,7,8, and especially 9 are all incredibly relevant.

   

10 Commandments for Westerners in China

Commandment #1

Know what you don’t know – (for many westerners, this is by far the most difficult challenge.). Any similarities between China and “back home” are purely accidental. This is a completely different culture. Do not be fooled by surface similarities or by local people who “seem to get it”. Sources of reliable information are your #1 asset.

Commandment #2

China is still a communist country - and there is absolutely zero chance of that changing any time soon.

Commandment #3

You have to show up to win. You must be physically present and put in the “face time”. There is no “autopilot” in Chinese business. If you feel that you are too busy to learn about China, then you are certainly too busy to be successful here.

Commandment #4

If things worked well here in China, then there would be significantly fewer opportunities for competent westerners. Try not to get too frustrated by the challenges you face.

Commandment #5

Time does not mean money here. Chinese business people do not believe in “opportunity cost”. Even simple negotiations can drag on for a long time. Avoid getting sucked into an endless cycle of meetings that don’t accomplish anything.

Commandment #6

Truth, honesty, good-will and long-term benefit are all culturally-specific concepts. Don’t expect your western standards to carry over here. Win-Win is not standard operating procedure here. Do not fool yourself that your long-term relationship with a local partner means anything.

Commandment #7

Don’t check your brains in at the border. You wouldn’t hand over your company’s money, intellectual property or trademarks to a virtual stranger in Sydney, London or San Francisco and expect to make a windfall. Don’t do it in China. The people that are offering to open doors for you are the same ones that can lock you out. Beware of people who peddle their “powerful friends and great connections”. They can use them to hurt you as well as help you.

Commandment #8

Due Diligence becomes more important when the language and systems are unclear, not less important. Don’t settle for the “least worst” deal or partner. Partners don’t get more honest and relationships don’t improve as the amount of money involved increases.

Commandment #9

China will still be here next year, and in 5 years. Don’t be pressured into signing a contract or making a deal because you are afraid of “missing the boat”. The boat has been here for 4,000+ years.

Commandment #10

Having a sense of humor helps. Having a Plan B helps even more.

 

Endgame!

Last night I watched a little more than half of a "documentary" on the web called Endgame, Blueprint for Global Slavery.   The whole thing is over 2 hours long but I am not quite masochistic enough to endure it all.  The film is about some supposed conspiracy by a bunch of the world's wealthiest bankers, senior politicians, other big-business leaders, and the Queen of Belgium (!) to do something which is apparently evil.  After over an hour of watching the thing I'm still not clear exactly what it is that they are conspiring to do.  Something about creating a world government that will kill 80% of the world's population and then enslave the rest.  Why they would want to do such a thing is never brought up.  But then again why would it be? (sarcasm)

I have met quite a few conspiracy theorists in my life including a member of my own family.  The one thing that all of these people had in common was uneducated intelligence. Without exception each was above average IQ but due to various life and/or personality issues had never been educated at a decent university and had never reached what they would consider their full potential.  There is something wonderful about a university education that somehow, almost inadvertently teaches critical thinking skills.  I honestly would be amazed to find very many if any well educated people amongst the ranks of conspiracy theorists.  I would be equally surprised to find many dumb people.  The best way to eliminate these conspiracy nuts would be prevent their appearance in the first place by ensuring that every intelligent child is identified at an early age and compelled if necessary down the correct path that will lead toa good education and eventually, hopefully, a productive life. 

Back to the movie, what a piece of absolute drivel.  Literally a minute did not go by where some inane point wasn't made that could not be refuted with a 30 second Google search worth of research. 
But thats the point.  Without critical thinking skills someone would never think to make that search.
Oh, by the way, it was at I think #5 on most viewed on Google video.

Nietzsche on prozac

I watched a documentary on the life and thinking of Nietzsche the other day.  In general it was quite interesting.  The thing that struck me however was that the various experts and biographers interviewed went on and on about his struggles with the giant questions of good and evil and the future of a world
where god is dead but never once mention that he was clearly suffering from manic depression and perhaps other mental ailments as well. 

Now mental illnesses are of course of a physiological nature having to do with synopses and transmission of protein between neurons and whatnot.  As a result, had Nietzsche lived today it is likely he would be
diagnosed and put on some drugs to try restore "normalcy" to his brain functions.  I wonder what he would have written about then?  Would his writing have been as poignent and influential?  I'm not sure.  But I thought it was interesting to speculate on the likely fateof philosophers in the light of current and future medicine. 

Oh, my other thought was the whole God is dead thing. That was great and extremely relevent
for the 19th century.  My reinterpretation for the 21st century: God is resurrected as Man.

A Particulate Matter

Mr. Wilber is urging all the athletes to wear specially designed masks over their noses and mouths from the minute they step foot in Beijing until they begin competing.

LOL.  Mr. Wilber is the US Olympic Commission's lead exercise physiologist.   
Such a huge slap to China's "dignitas" might be the only thing powerful enough to get the corrupt officials to do something about the environment.  Can just imagine the photos in the newspapers of athletes wearing masks.

Here's the link to the NYT article:  Olympic Teams Vying to Defeat Beijing's Smog

The Chinese government really took a big gamble with these games.  Not sure its gonna pay off too well for them.

ShaMao'er new colors

I hope you like the new colors.  I really liked the previous black background but I think it sometimes made the posts difficult to read.  I will slowly work back through the previous posts to ensure that the text colors are readable.

Irresponsible journalism

I am getting really tired of reading of Iran's intent to "wipe Israel from the map" as expressed by Iranian President Ahmadinejad.  Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but contempt for the Iranian regime
(or any theocracy for that matter) and I have nothing against Israel per se (though I would not have agreed with its creation back in 1949).  The issue here is one of responsible journalism. 

If one reads the actual words of Mr. Ahmadinejad one will see from the context of the remarks that when he speaks of "wiping Israel from the map" he is speaking in a literal context.  He is not talking about nuclear or other violent annihilation as Americans will often use the phrase "wipe off the map" colloquially.  He is referring to instead to the removal of the state of Israel from the map of the world because of its ineligibility to be a state.  Or more precisely, he is arguing that the state of Israel was imposed upon the Palestinians by the victorious Allied powers and that the Arabs are in effect paying for the sins of the Germans.  He says why not establish the independent Jewish state in Germany or France or America?  This is an intellectual  historical argument that is not entirely without merit though of course irrelevant to current reality.  Again, though I have no doubt that there are many Iranians who would probably love to erase Israel in a mushroom cloud perhaps including the President himself, this is not the context of what he said and it is irresponsible of the media to portray it as if he did.

Should you work in China?

Going to break my rule about not posting about my personal life because I think this is important.

Recently my firm had a national meeting via internet talking about various success stories and initiatives.  One of the messages from leadership was to encourage employees to take advantage of the firm's overseas secondment opportunities, particularly in China and India.  Based on my own experience, I don't think they could be offering worse advice.

I hope my tale will be taken into consideration by any Americans who are thinking about going to China to work and also any working there now. 

I had first lived and worked in China back in 1993-95.  Upon my return to the US I got my first entry level job in the US.  I progressed very quickly over the next several years.  My job was never very China related over this time though the fact that I spoke good Chinese was useful simply because my bosses assumed I must be smart.  I was always interested in going back to China for a time and when the opportunity arose to work in Shanghai founding a new department I jumped at the chance.  I worked in China for 4 years, returning to the US last June.

My experience since I have returned suggests that gaining work experience in China is not only not an enhancement to one's career but may even be seriously counterproductive.  In my case at least it is clear to me that my career would be in much healthier shape had I not gone back to China.  I think the main message is that if you go, you should be prepared to stay.  You should be prepared to accept that your career will be in China.  You may not easily be able to just work for a few years and then return home.  Here are a couple of the reasons:

1)  For the most part, you do not learn anything usefully transferable to the US  when working in China.  For instance, you do not typically learn anything about cutting edge or best practice management or process techniques.  You may learn a lot about how to do business in China, but this has little relevance to doing business in the US.

2) Despite the relative prominence of China in the media these days, China is just not thought of as terribly important by most companies in the US.  I know this is hard to imagine for those currently working in China.  However, I have now spoken to many high level professionals in many companies and it is just a fact.   Profits there are typically either non-existent or minimal when compared to other regions.   Even if they are manufacturing the majority of their goods there there is little need for someone who knows about this in the US.  The need for these people is in China.    Also, there is a perception that companies typically don't send their best people to China.

3) Once you reach a certain level in your career there is nothing more important than the personal connections you make.  Now I'm sure that some people are a lot better at maintaining contacts than I am but it is very easy to let former relationships (particularly medium-level type) atrophy.  The opportunity cost of my time in China has really become clear now.  Cultivating high level relationships in the US as I would have done over the past 4 years had I stayed would have been invaluable now. 

Now I'm sure the above does not apply to everyone.  It depends on the type of job you have and the level as well.  But I do hope that people factor these things in as a risk when considering overseas assignment.

In case your wondering, I am currently employed but doing work completely unrelated to China.  I will likely end up back in China if I want to do work relative to my experience now.

Old posts

Continuing on from my last post, I just did a quick survey of my old posts.  I think the following may have some merit:

"Something that makes sense" - Dec 2007.  In case you haven't read about it, this is pretty important

"That elusive market" - Sept 2007.  This issue of market access will only become more important over time I believe

"Offshoring ethics" - Aug 2007.  I would love some feedback thoughts on this as it continues to be an issue for me

"How do you fight wishful thinking" -  July 2007.   No one should open their mouth to say a word about the Chinese stock market without first knowing these basic facts

"Tyranny of the minority"  - June 2007.  Hasn't gotten any better unfortunately

"The dumb and lazy stay home" -  May 2007.  Immigration hysteria just keeps growing as we get into the elections.  Not just stupid, actually dangerous.

"Not my quote" - May 2007.   Just true.

"Racial irrelevance" - April 2007.  One of the things that continues to make America the city on the hill.

" Where I refuse to use a title including the words "tea leaves" - April 2007.  Something I don't miss

"Art II - Aesthetic entrails" - March 2007.  Reading it again made me mad all over again! lol!

"What's in a name?" -  Dec 2006.  In case you don't know about ShaMao'er.  Understanding this phrase goes a long way to understanding current Chinese society

"A short tale of globalization" - Dec 2006.   This is the story that inspired the blog

Comments of any kind would be great!