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February 26, 2008

Comparative advantage

As I've mentioned in some previous posts, the ShaMao is concerned about globalization, particularly since his job involves facilitating the process.  I understand both the macro-economic forces behind it and the micro-economic business factors that drive individual companies.  Proponents of unrestricted free trade will talk about comparative advantage and argue that the rising tide caused by efficient allocation of resources will lift all boats.  That is where my problem comes in, is this really true?  Will the short term pain of job loss lead to long term benefit?

I like to listen to James McMurtrey's song, We Can't Make it Here Anymore.  It is a powerful song, even if the understanding of economics is clearly lacking.  A few lyrics from the song:

That big ol' building was the textile mill
        It fed our kids and it paid our bills
        But they turned us out and they closed the doors
        We can't make it here anymore

See all those pallets piled up on the loading dock
        They're just gonna set there till they rot
        'Cause there's nothing to ship, nothing to pack
        Just busted concrete and rusted tracks
        Empty storefronts around the square
        There's a needle in the gutter and glass everywhere
        You don't come down here 'less you're looking to score
        We can't make it here anymore

Now I come from Southeastern Massachusetts, so when I heard those lyrics I thought to myself, he is talking about Georgia or Alabama or somewhere in 2004, but he could just as well be talking about New Bedford, MA in 1935.  That's where all of those textile mills that he is crying about came from.  They all moved to the South in the 1930's-1950's for the exact same reasons that they have moved from the South to overseas in the last 25 years. 

I found a book the other day (in my mother's inventory at the book fair again), called A Study of 81 Principle American Markets published in 1925.  It is basically a survey of retail activity in larger cities throughout the US at the time.  Here is an excerpt from the section on New Bedford:

It is the center of the largest group of fine textile mills in the world and includes such varied manufactures as fine tools, silverware, cut glass, cordage, shoes, soap, and biscuits. 

New Bedford's prosperity may be judged by the fact that in telephone installations it is the third largest in percentage  in the world. 

This city is, from the point of view of population, prosperity, home owning, rapid growth and industrial activity one of the most worthwhile markets in the country.

Now I grew up about 30 miles away from New Bedford and I can tell you that the reputation of city is absolutely nothing like the above.  It is thought of as a model of urban decay, economic stagnation, drug abuse, crime, and general nastiness.  Just 3 years after the above was written, a large, long lasting, worker strike took place in the mills. The next year, the Great Depression hit and these factors, combined with logistical improvements in the South, resulted in the relocation of the vast majority of manufacturing to the South over about a 20 year period.

Fig8 This movement of jobs to the South made perfect macro-economic sense as a trend, and made perfect business sense to the corporations involved.  So what happened to New Bedford?  Did its economy readjust itself to leverage its own comparative advantage?  No, it became a shithole.   The city lost about 1/4 of its population since the above blurb was written in 1925.  Its unemployment rate over the past 10 years has consistently been about 25% higher than Massachusetts as a whole; crime rates in most categories are more than double national averages; test scores are far lower than state averages, etc...

Maybe some places just don't have a comparative advantage? 


February 25, 2008

Faded stars

Given that the Oscars was last night, I thought this might be a fitting moment to comment on the transitory nature of fame.  My mother sells old books.  Yesterday I was helping her pack up at the end of a book fair and came across a photo book of the the leading film stars in 1930.  I flipped through the book and realized that I only recognized a single name out of about 35 actors and actresses in total, Gary Cooper.

Now I'm no classic film buff so there is no real surprise that I don't know more of them.  I'm sure that folks knowledgeable in such things would know a lot more.  The thing that intrigued me was that these stars were most certainly household names in 1930 whose lives and antics were followed in newspapers and magazines.  Now their names mean nothing to the uninitiated. 

As with so many of my posts... I'm not sure exactly what my point is other than it intrigued me.   I've never understood many people's interest in the lives of these stars and looking through that book somehow seemed to validate that indifference I guess.

February 24, 2008

Jealousy

Image from James Fallows Blog.

Img_5088 One of my friends in China told me the other day that I am jealous of their life there...




Golden Shield

This is just a great article from a great journalist on a great site. 

The Connection has been Reset

The technical information in the piece is really interesting of course, but it is the cultural aspect that I find most fascinating.  My strong impression, gleaned both by direct questioning (not too useful) and by round about probing, is that most Chinese are only vaguely aware of the extent of their golden shield; are completely unaware that it is the reason the internet is so painfully slow in China; and most intriguingly, seem to feel this to be a perfectly understandable and appropriate government function. 

This goes to a fundamental difference in the Western vs. Chinese understanding as to the underlying purpose of government.   I have the feeling that this type of internet control is not so much a function of autocracy, or communism/Leninism, or even fascism, as it is of underlying culture.  It would be interesting to know if historical Western historical autocracies (say Louis XIV France or even Nazi Germany), would have been able to erect something such as the Golden Shield without significant popular dissent.  I suspect not. 

February 21, 2008

Re: Subversive ShaMao'er

Finally got an answer regarding whether or not ShaMao'er is blocked in China:

TypePad is blocked in China so it's not just your site.

Clearly the action of a leading world power destined to overtake the US (next year maybe!)...
Bunch of cowards

R E S P E C T

Spielberg's Olympic Pullout Angers Chinese Media, Pubilc

It never ceases to amaze me how surprised and indignant Chinese are when things like this happen. What do they expect? It is not as if they don't know what the outside world is like, they do.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the simple fact is that no matter how many skyscrapers they build; no matter how big their GDP is; no matter how advanced their military becomes or how many astronauts they send into space; as long as they remain the corrupt autocracratic government that they are today they will never get the respect of the world. Things like this will continue to happen on a regular basis.

February 19, 2008

Letters from a Chinese Official II

A long time ago, maybe a year or so back, I published an excerpt from a little book I have titled
Letters from a Chinese Official 
published in 1903.  I had intended to keep publishing excerpts now and then but then misplaced the book during the move back to the US and just now noticed it again. 

This time out of curiosity I did a quick Google search on the title and have now learned that the book was a fake and was in fact the product of a British anarchist historian, not of a Chinese Official.  So, while that is disappointing,  the book is still kind of interesting but now in an opposite way.   It now represents the viewpoint of a Western Sinophile who believes Chinese society and culture at the time to be much superior to the West. 

Now remember, this Brit is writing at the turn of the 20th century, at the height of the industrial revolution in Britain.  So the criticisms of the West that are supposedly the observations of a Chinese official are written in that context.  What is striking is how well the descriptions / criticisms of  the West  at that time resemble China of today.  Maybe the apologists are right after all and China just needs another 100 years of development.  Of course by that time we will all have asphyxiated in the byproducts of that development....

Here's an excerpt for your reading pleasure:

...."You have dissolved all human and personal ties, and you endeavor, in vain, to replace them with the impersonal activity of the State.  The salient characteristic of your civilization is its irresponsibility.  You have liberated forces you cannot control; you are caught yourselves in your own cogs and levers.  The making of dividends is the universal preoccupation; the well-being of the laborer is no one's concern... You produce, not because you will, but because you must; you consume, not what you choose but what is forced upon you."

February 15, 2008

Bar Stool Economics

This is just great.

Bar Stool Economics - Tax system explained

February 12, 2008

Continuous improvement

Everywhere I go I am constantly being bombarded by the America in decline hypothesis.  I see multiple books on it in the bookstore; I hear presidential candidates referring to it on TV; I am swamped by it by pundits in the media.  I am told that America's best days are behind it, we are declining and will soon be surpassed by others (like China! sure lol!)

ShaMao'er readers will know already that I believe this to be absolute crap.  The reasons are myriad, but here's just one representative example of everything that is right in America and in this specific case, truly without comparison anywhere else in the world:

The 2007 Slate 60 - Donations

Here's a representative example of what is contained within:

Dan and Jan Duncan—$75 million to various causes, including $50 million to launch the Neurological Research Institute at Texas Children's Hospital. The institute to study and treat pediatric neurological disorders will be completed by 2010. Dan Duncan is chairman and director of Houston-based Enterprise Products, an energy-services company, and wife Jan is a member Texas Children's Board of Trustees. The family has also been extremely active in cancer research and has given millions in support of the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, where Duncan, a cancer survivor, was a patient.

Richard and Melanie Lundquist—$54 million to the Partnership for Los Angeles Schools and California Science Center. Lundquist is the president of Continental Development Corporation, a real-estate company that owns millions of square feet in California commercial space. His wife, Melanie, has been involved in children's educational and social causes and serves on the California Science Center Foundation's Board of Trustees. The 10-year, $50 million commitment to the Partnership for L.A. Schools aims to improve the city's public schools, but it is a conditional gift—the schools must show progress and meet benchmarks in test scores, graduation rates, and other categories. The two also gave $10 million to establish the Lundquist Cardiovascular Institute at Torrance Memorial Medical Center in Torrance, Calif.

As the name of the article implies, these are just 2 of 60 examples in 2007.  The smallest donation on the list is for $30 million dollars.

Ever heard of  Mr. and Mrs. Duncan or Mr. and Mrs. Lundquist?   Neither have I.    And that is the thing about America.  Random people make giant fortunes in a legitimate non-corrupt fashion and they give it back.  On a regular basis and to an extent completely unrivaled in the rest of the world (see below graph), they give it back to improve the nation.

Charitablegiving Not exactly a sign of a nation in decline.

February 09, 2008

ShaMao'er turns 2000

Just in time for the New Year, I've had my 2000th hit.  Thanks for reading.